Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) are the peak of the retail year, bringing record traffic to online sellers, rapid revenue growth, and a much-needed boost to annual results. But a sudden surge of cross-border sales can push an otherwise unregistered seller past a state’s economic nexus threshold, creating immediate obligations to register, collect, and remit sales tax.
Adobe’s 2026 holiday forecast projects that Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, will drive 17.3% of overall season spend, totaling USD 47.5 billion, a 7.4% increase over last year. Cyber Monday alone is expected to generate more than USD 15 billion for online sellers, up 6.2% from 2025. For growing businesses, this is a major opportunity, but it also brings new obligations.
A Brief History of Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM)?
Black Friday got its name in the 1950s, when Philadelphia police used it to describe the chaos of the day after Thanksgiving, as crowds poured into the city ahead of the annual Army-Navy football game. A more flattering explanation holds that it marks the day retailers’ accounts moved from red (losses) to black (profits). Over time, the name stuck, and the event expanded globally, transitioning from in-store promotions to online sales and adapting to the e-commerce economy.
Cyber Monday was introduced in 2005 as the online counterpart to Black Friday, and the name was inspired by the fact that people were shopping online from their work computers because they had better internet access than at home.
Combined, BFCM became the most significant shopping event of the year, marking the start of the holiday retail season. Notably, Cyber Monday became the biggest online shopping day of the year and is expected to generate over USD 15 billion in revenue for online sellers in 2026, a 6.2% increase over 2025.
BFCM and the Impact on Economic Nexus
Following the well-known 2018 Supreme Court decision in South Dakota v. Wayfair, most US states adopted economic nexus rules, which were followed by specific rules for marketplace facilitators. Under the economic nexus rules, most states set a threshold, typically as USD 100,000 or 200 transactions, and exceeding either one creates a duty to register for, collect, and remit sales tax.
Nonetheless, there are some variations among US states on the thresholds, and the common trend is the removal of the 200-transaction threshold, leaving only the dollar amount threshold in effect. However, even these dollar amounts vary from one state to another, adding to the complexity for online sellers.
Many sellers also overlook that thresholds are measured cumulatively over a set period. A few months of holiday sales can push your totals past a threshold even if everyday sales never would. Once that happens, you must register within a short window and begin collecting tax on subsequent sales.
For example, a seller with USD 80,000 in sales to a state with a USD 100,000 threshold by October could cross it in a single BFCM weekend. Or a small online seller could exceed a 200-transaction threshold during BFCM weekend, making it liable for sales taxes.
Other Compliance Risks
Economic nexus thresholds are not the only source of sales and use tax issues. Each state also decides what counts toward the threshold. This is especially tricky for sellers who combine marketplace sales with sales on their own websites. Sellers of digital goods and services may also struggle to determine taxability rules.
Sellers with thin margins, cross-border shipping, or region-targeted promotions should map where their customers are located and how each state defines economic nexus. Tax technology providers and state-by-state tax guides can make this far more manageable.
Implications for 2026 BFCM Compliance
Looking ahead to the upcoming holiday season sales, which include BFCM, several practical realities stand out. First, as stated in the Adobe 2026 forecast, this season's volumes are large enough that many sellers who were previously below state thresholds could exceed them during BFCM.
Secondly, legislative changes are continuing. While many states simplified the threshold or removed the transaction count, others tightened definitions of taxable transactions and marketplace facilitator rules, and broadened the tax base in the process. Additionally, for sellers already registered for sales tax purposes, an increase in sales volume and revenue affects the amount of tax due, which ultimately may require a different tax return filing frequency.
The classic holiday playbook (discount heavily, capture market share, reconcile post-season) must now include pre-season nexus checks and post-season action plans. Even small sellers can become liable for sales and use tax. Before running high-volume promotions, consider automating sales-by-jurisdiction reporting, integrating marketplace data, and consulting counsel, a tax automation vendor, or outsourcing sales tax compliance.
Conclusion
BFCM can significantly boost sales and revenue, but a successful campaign can also create unexpected, lasting sales tax obligations. Unprepared sellers can quickly turn a record sales season into an audit with penalties, back taxes, and interest. To avoid that, project sales by geography, monitor thresholds in real time, and have registration and collection workflows ready. Review your exposure before Thanksgiving.
